Recent actions: Silverlake, UOB, Keppel, NeraTel

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Been trying to market time lately, selling Keppel, NeraTel, Mapletree GCC, Saizen REIT, STI ETF, before the market tanked further. Failed with Keppel and ended up selling low and buying high. I think it's not worth the trouble... It's so much easier to go long. I think I'll focus more on long term speculation rather than trying to predict short term ups and downs.

Silverlake Axis: Due to the short seller report recently, I managed to get this at half price. Don't know who panic sold right after the counter resumed trading. I was so surprised when my lowball offer got through. Anyway, until I see customers fleeing from this company, I'll keep this counter. It's a small position so I think the risk tradeoff is worth it. Some of the points in the short sellers report are a bit suspect, although they seem to make sense at first glance. For example, I really don't believe that they have no version control. Maybe I'll go for an interview and grill them about it if I ever have to job hop.

Datuk Yvonne Chia seems to be a fan of the shares and has been buying them on dips. Goh Peng Ooi's daughter has also recently became a director. There are many positive signs but the related party transactions could still remain a vulnerability.

UOB: I was planning to buy OCBC but the UOB dip made it very attractive as the price is close to book value. NPL could still be a problem, especially in China region, but the exposure is not that big. This is more of a rebalance from the STI ETF. I bought the STI ETF when I first started because of a lack of capital for diversification, but now I can afford to buy the constituents themselves. There are many companies in the STI that I don't feel comfortable holding or are overvalued. For example, commodities companies which have low profit margins. Or SIA. I don't believe in airlines, because the barriers to entry are low and regulation is very strict.

Keppel: I'm mainly buying this for Keppel Land. I don't really like the O&M sector because of high capex and long dated receivables. But I do think their shipyards have a competitive advantage. They are also going to acquire another shipyard in China from Titan (subject to restructuring finalisation). If you can't beat the China shipyards, join them.

NeraTel: I was considering either SingTel or this but I prefer small caps because the growth rate could be higher.


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