Over 30 years: ((1.04^30)-1)/30 = 7.478% CAGR
Over 20 years: ((1.04^20)-1)/20 = 5.956% CAGR
For CPF-SA, we can practically invest only into unit trusts with crazy expense ratios. And only balanced funds. No pure equity funds. For example, I put some into First State Bridge with expense ratio of about 1.43%. The expected return could be around 5-6%.
Given the risk, is it worth it? I'm not so sure. CPF-SA is practically risk-free, but there is a policy risk. We can't assume that the rate will stay at 4% forever. Hopefully we get more lower expense ratio funds, like the new LionGlobal All Seasons funds. I'm planning to invest into that new fund for the CPF-OA, instead of the STI ETF, once I hit my 35% limit for common stocks.
Even though companies market expected returns at higher than 4%, your actual return can actually be less than 4%.If you are looking for more certain returns, you can consider Reits. Why you should invest in Reits in Singapore . Hopefully you can get some valuable information from it!
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