Showing posts with label thoughts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label thoughts. Show all posts

Diversification of risk: marriage, property

Sunday, 26 February 2017 19:53
Posted by owq 0 comments
Inspired by http://www.my15hourworkweek.com/2017/02/14/thank-you-my-mrs/

He was talking about how marriage is like putting all his resources into one egg... It's true. You put a lot of your time, emotions and money into one person. Usually the guy puts in more, because let's face it, even though there's supposed to be gender equality, guys are still expected to take most of the risks and girls actually end up with more power now. But I digress. I'm not here to rally against marriage or girls but rather to encourage a more rational look at relationships in general. I'll talk about this from the viewpoint of a guy but the other side is somewhat similar.

A long-term relationship is not as costly as a marriage but the terms are similar. You're expected to invest emotionally and sexually in only one person as doing otherwise is considered cheating. Sure you may have your own life and your own friends but in general you'll end up spending most of your resources on this person, because if not then what is the relationship for? So something to consider is the risk of putting everything in one egg. You have spent all your time and resources on this girl. What if she leaves you? What if she becomes a liability? "Someone to take care of you" is a double-edged sword. Love conquers all? In sickness or in health? Sure... But girls change their mind and they are notoriously more so than guys. No guy married a girl thinking that she'll leave him! Same for the girl! But it happens, and girls initiate the divorces more often than guys. So the risk is there. At my company we have a 60% divorce rate already (this is just for fun as sample size is too small). Anyway what I'm saying that we need to consider the downsides as well. The possibility of your spouse leaving you amicably, leaving you with a host of lawyer debts and stolen stuff, getting sick, or even treating you badly. If you're in a marriage, never take it for granted. Anything could happen, and I'm not trying to scare you. And when you're in "love", you never think that your loved one could treat you so badly. So we need some adjustment for the "in love" state.

Now, usually, marriage comes with property, in typical Singaporean fashion. And chances are, you get a flat quite early on with debt. A FLAT IS NOT A SURE WIN THING. It can be a good deal, but don't forget the debt. Usually debt is required in some way as couples don't earn enough to pay in full. And that means most of your assets is stuck in ONE property. With corresponding liabilities to boot.

So now you have all your emotional needs invested in ONE person and your financial assets in ONE property. How is that not risky? You tell me.

Value stock vs growth stock: are they really different?

Monday, 11 July 2016 09:48
Posted by owq 0 comments

From Investopedia:
"A value stock is a security trading at a lower price than how the company’s performance may otherwise indicate."
"A growth stock is a share in a company whose earnings are expected to grow at an above-average rate relative to the market."
 I have always thought that "value stock" and "growth stock" don't really mean anything. All I am concerned with is that I'm paying less for the value that I get. If I'm paying less for the expected growth of a company, then it is a value stock. Of course, it's hard to predict the future, so it's good to be conservative in case you're wrong.

Price is what you pay, value is what you get. And value is a function of all the cash flows the company will give in the future, and that is affected by growth. However, it is important to see things on a per-share basis, as earnings may shrink on a company level but increase on a share level. So rather than look at growth on a company level, we should look at growth on a share level.

In the end, it is really just buy low and sell high. A simple concept, but yet hard to act on due to our human biases.

Free lunch in investing

Tuesday, 23 February 2016 20:13
Posted by owq 0 comments
Recently a reader of AK's blog complained to him:
Straight to the point. I am very disappointed in you.  
I have been following your blog for more than a year and followed some of your calls, most of them bad. Now you go MIA.

http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg/2016/02/reader-is-disappointed-and-ak-tries-to.html 
I don't know whether to laugh or cry. The reader expects a free lunch in investing? Furthermore he only invested for about a year or so, judging by his comments. In a bear market, obviously stocks will drop. And investing with a 1 year horizon? Don't expect to make money, buddy.

People who don't understand stocks shouldn't buy stocks.